Special Features
Potential Heavy Rainfall for southern Mexico and Central America: Satellite imagery continues to reveal a broad cyclonic circulation associated with a Central American Gyre (CAG) in Central America. Latest computer model guidance continues to suggest high precipitation amounts through early next week. As the system continues propagating northwestward it will affect the Gulf of Fonseca Region and eastern areas of Honduras and Nicaragua from Friday into Sunday. The heaviest impact in Belize, Guatemala and Southern Mexico is expected over the weekend. It is recommended that residents in the aforementioned areas to stay alert on the latest information from their local meteorological weather agencies.
Invest AL95: Broad low pressure is forming in the vicinity of a tropical wave near 10N37W. This low is moving west at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 02N to 12N between 31W and 44W. Currently only moderate to fresh winds are noted N of the center of the low, with seas of 5 to 7 ft. Although the low is broad and thunderstorm activity is currently disorganized, environmental conditions are forecast to be conductive for tropical development. Development is anticipated, and a tropical depression or tropical storm is likely to form this weekend several hundred nm E of the Windward Islands while the system conditions moving quickly W. Interests in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the progress of this system. There is a medium chance of tropical development in the next 48 hours and a high chance over the next 7 days. Please read the latest Tropical Weather Outlook issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov for further details.
Tropical Waves
Please see the Special Features section above for more information about the tropical wave in the central Atlantic associated with AL95.
A new tropical wave has emerged off the coast of Africa this afternoon. Scattered moderate convection associated with this wave is noted from 04N to 08N between 20W and 27W.
Another tropical wave is in the central Atlantic extending from 04N to 19N with axis near 52W, moving west at 10 to 15 kt. No significant convection is depicted at this time in association to this wave.
A tropical wave (AL94) is in the western Caribbean along 83W, from just S of western Cuba S to Panama, moving W at around 15 kt. Numerous moderate to strong convection is from 11N to 21N between 73W and 85W. Fresh E winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft follow the passage of this wave. Although convection is currently disorganized, some tropical development is possible as this wave moves WNW over the NW Caribbean Sea or SW Gulf of Mexico over the next few days. There is a low chance of tropical formation over the next 7 days.
Monsoon Trough/ITCZ
The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic at the coast of Senegal near 13N16W, then curves west- southwestward across 08N21W to 10N39W. The ITCZ extends from 10N46W to 09N55W. Convection in the vicinity of these features is primarily associated with the tropical waves described above.
Gulf Of Mexico
A surface trough in the northern Gulf extends from 28N86W to 28N90W. Scattered moderate convection is noted between the through and the U.S. Coast. Otherwise, mainly dry conditions prevail as high pressure centered well NE of the region is nosing into the SE and south-central basin. Winds are mainly gentle and anticyclonic in the gulf, with seas of 3 ft or less.
For the forecast, a ridge will continue to dominate the Gulf waters through Fri supporting light to gentle winds and slight seas over the eastern half of the Gulf, and gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas across the western half of the basin. Looking ahead, winds and seas may increase over the central and west-central Gulf Fri night through Sun night as a broad area of low pressure, with some potential for tropical cyclone development reaches the area. Conditions are forecast to improve on Mon.
Caribbean Sea
Please refer to the Tropical Waves section above for convection associated with the tropical wave (AL94) over the western Carribbean. Elsewhere, the gradient between the Atlantic Ridge and the eastern end of the Pacific monsoon trough is generating moderate to fresh easterly winds over much of the basin. Seas in the central basin are 5 to 8 ft, with 3 to 6 ft seas in the west, and 2 to 5 ft seas in the east.
For the forecast, expect moderate to fresh trade winds through Mon night, with the exceptions of fresh to strong southeast winds over the far western Caribbean Fri through Sat night and light to gentle winds over the southwestern Caribbean. Winds and seas are expected to increase in the eastern Caribbean starting Mon as a strong tropical wave, or possible tropical cyclone, enters the Caribbean. This conditions will spread to the central Caribbean Tue and Tue night as this upcoming system tracks in a general westward direction.
Atlantic Ocean
Please see the Special Features section above for details on low pressure (AL95) that has a potential for tropical development over the next 7 days.
Scattered moderate convection is noted N of the Bahamas in association with a weak surface trough. Farther E, scattered moderate convection is noted N of 25N between 67W and 72W. Elsewhere, the Azores High and associated ridge continues to dominate the Atlantic subtropical waters, supporting moderate winds and 5 to 7 ft seas across the region, except for locally fresh NE winds N of 15N between the coast of Africa and 30W.
For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure over the region will remain in control of the weather pattern across the region during the forecast period producing mainly a gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow with moderate seas NE of the Bahamas. Looking ahead, winds and seas may begin to increase over the southeastern waters late Sat through Mon in advance of a strong tropical wave, possibly a tropical cyclone, that is expected to track in a general westward motion into the Caribbean Sea Mon through Tue night.
Posted 2 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Konarik
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